Notes & terms
- 📝 Vacant at COE
Financing Options~$46,543 est. cash to close
Explore financing for this property.
Every figure is an estimate from stated assumptions, not a loan offer or a commitment to lend.
Real ARV$273,000 · 4 investor resales
ARV (county records)$273,000
Range$269,000 to $288,000
This one$235,000
The 4 investor resales are for signed-in buyers. Free, ten seconds, unlocked on every deal.
15904 W LUNDBERG ST SURPRISE 853741,320 sf · resold 2026-06-29 · $255/sf · 0.22 mi$336,500
16909 N 157TH AVE SURPRISE 853741,220 sf · resold 2026-04-08 · $246/sf · 0.25 mi$300,000
15712 W SMOKEY DR SURPRISE 853741,065 sf · resold 2026-08-05 · $310/sf · 0.31 mi$330,000
15955 W SMOKEY DR SURPRISE 853741,320 sf · resold 2026-08-05 · $257/sf · 0.34 mi$339,000
How this ARV was figured
The median price per square foot of homes an investor company resold to a buyer using a conventional, FHA or VA loan, within 0.5 mi in the last 12 months, times this home's square footage on the county roll. Source: Maricopa County sales affidavits. Not an appraisal, and not the seller's number. This one is sold as-is and the numbers are yours to run.View Comps$355,000 median · 17 sales
Median sold nearby$355,000
This one$235,000
Difference$120,000 under · 34%
The 17 recorded sales are for signed-in buyers. Free, ten seconds, unlocked on every deal.
Price per sq ft$216/sf vs $278/sf sold
How these comps were chosen
17 recorded sales within about three quarters of a mile, same size of house, last 30 months. Source: Maricopa County Assessor — closed sales from the public record, not asking prices. Sold prices are what the buyer paid, in whatever condition the property was in. This one is sold as-is and the numbers are yours to run.Property RecordsCounty assessed $259,000
- County full cash value$259,000
- Parcel (APN)50177109
- Year built1997
- Living area1,065 sq ft
- Lot5,584 sq ft
- 2026-10-27First reached us
What the county value is
The county assessor's full cash value for this parcel. It is an assessment, not an ARV and not an appraisal.Deal AnalysisScore 69/100
Asking$235,000
Est. ARV$273,000
Est. rehab$26,500
Est. profit$-27,922
Est. cash to close$46,543
Max offer at 15% margin$171,500
Deal score 69/100 · flip
- asks 66% of what nearby homes sold for
- 17 recorded sales behind it
- seller photos
- listed today
First 48 deal read
At the asking price this is thin for a heavy rehab: about $-27,922 of estimated profit after $26,500 of work, 6 months of carry and selling costs. It works at a lower basis, not at this one.
The asking price is 66% of the median of 17 recorded sales nearby, and $216 a square foot against $278 sold. Those are closed sales from the county record, not asking prices.
What the numbers support
$159,000 – $171,500
Clears a 20% margin at the low end and 15% at the high end. Asking is $63,500 above it.
What to check before you commit
- The rehab figure is a $25/sq ft assumption, not a scope. On a property nobody has walked it is the number most likely to be wrong.
The range, not a promise
Est. profit after selling costs. Break-even resale —.
ConservativeARV 7% under · rehab 20% over · +3 months—
Basethe assumptions on this page—
AggressiveARV 5% over · rehab 10% under · −1 month—
How these numbers are calculated
The score and the written read are computed from the figures on this page by fixed rules, the same way for every listing — not a language model. A score is a ranking aid, not an appraisal. Known: the address, the price, the county record and the recorded sales. Estimated: resale, rehab, holding cost, rent. Yours: anything you change in the calculator. Nothing here is an appraisal or a promise of profit.- Asking priceimportedas listed by the seller
- County value $259,000verifiedCounty Assessor full cash value
- Comparable salesverified17 closed sales from the county record
- Est. ARV $273,000calculatedmedian of 4 investor resales within 0.5 mi, last 12 mo, county records
- Est. rehab $26,500estimated$25/sq ft x 1,065 sf
- Holding cost $335/moestimatedtax $140 + insurance $105 + utilities $90 a month
- Profit, cash, offer ceilingcalculatedfrom the figures above at 10% down, 9.75%, 1 pt, 6 months held
Aerial FlyoverPhotoreal 3D · parcel outline
16550 N 158th Ave, SurpriseFlying in…
$235,000
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More Details
Seller notes
- 3 Bed / 2 Bath
- 1,065 SF
- 📝 Vacant at COE
Off-market and sold as-is. First to earnest money takes it. Price is the wholesale price and is subject to change. Flip Flow AZ is not a licensed brokerage and does not represent buyers or sellers; we sell our contractual interest in the property.
